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周二,加拿大10月年化通脹率從9月的1.6%上升至2.0%,高于經濟學家預期的1.9%,主要因汽油價格的降幅較上月收窄。這推高了加元,導致美元兌加元(USDCAD)下跌0.42%,收于1.3956。

(加拿大CPI年率走勢圖,來源:Investing.com)

(美元兌加元日線圖,來源:Trading View)
高于預期的通脹報告暫時降低了12月加息規模擴大可能性的預期,但未來仍有關鍵數據將出爐。加拿大央行此前在10月降息50個基點,這是15年來首次在非疫情期間實施如此大幅度的降息。
因此,貨幣市場目前認為加拿大央行在12月12日的政策會議上降息50個基點的概率為23%,低于數據發布前的38%。此外,即將于11月29日發布的第三季度GDP數據以及12月6日的11月就業報告也可能進一步影響市場對加拿大央行政策寬松的預期。
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