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日本央行(BOJ)正日益將經濟疲軟歸因于長期勞動力短缺,而非需求疲軟,這一變化可能成為推動加息超出原先預期的理由。在制造業、酒店業和餐飲業等多個行業,企業面臨的主要挑戰並非缺少客戶,而是缺少勞動力。這一觀點在央行的評論中越來越受到重視。
盡管日本的産出缺口仍略微為負,表明經濟尚未完全發揮潛力,日本央行決策者正在挑戰傳統觀點,即需求疲軟阻礙了通脹上升。盡管消費低迷,央行正更加關注因勞動力短缺導致的工資驅動型通脹,暗示其有更強的理由維持加息步伐。
日本央行1月季度展望報告顯示,工資上漲正逐步推動通脹上升,進一步鞏固了市場對貨幣緊縮的預期。支持這一觀點的還有BOJ理事田村直樹,他以鷹派立場著稱,並在周四表示,到2025財年下半年,利率至少應提高至1%。

(美元兌日元日線價格圖表,來源:Trading View)
近期價格已突破上升趨勢線,並以顯著的空頭動能跌破前支撐區。然而,在進一步下探至下方支撐區之前,價格可能會回測前期結構。因此,關鍵在于觀察價格在任一矩形區域內的反應。
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本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料僅供參考,旨在幫助讀者了解市場形勢,並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施確保資料的准確性,但不能保證資料的絕對准確性,並可能隨時更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets對于因直接或間接使用或依賴此類資料而可能導致的任何損失或虧損(包括但不限于利潤損失)不承擔責任。
隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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