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周四,在假期前的清淡交易中,美元略有下跌,消化了显示美国经济韧性的多项指标,同时投资者评估当选总统唐纳德·特朗普可能开始一场没有赢家的关税战的风险。
此次下跌进一步削弱了美元近期的涨势。在许多交易者的假期和月底假期重叠的情况下,几乎没有人愿意在感恩节长假前建立或持有头寸。周四市场休市,周五交易所提前收盘。
此外,修正后的数据显示,第三季度国内生产总值按年率增长了2.8%,符合预期,并与上个月的初步估计相同,这并未显著提振市场对美联储下月再次降息的预期,尽管交易员仍然倾向于此方向,将降息的可能性略微提高至67%。

(美国初步GDP季度变化,来源:Forex Factory)
消费支出数据也未能支撑这一降息预期,数据显示,尽管经济保持着强劲增长的势头,但过去几个月通胀的下降似乎停滞了。虽然10月耐用品订单增长了低于预期的0.2%,但失业救济申请数为213,000,比上周向上修正后的215,000个失业救济申请略有下降,显示劳动力市场依然稳健。

(美国失业救济申请,来源:Forex Factory)
市场普遍预计,通胀可能会略微上升,但并未失控。因此,这为12月降息25个基点铺平了道路,之后可能会暂停。然而,这一暂停可能不会是由于通胀数据,而是由于特朗普关税的不确定性。
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