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周一,由于投资者准备迎接对全球经济可能具有决定性的一周,美国将选出新领导人,美元指数跳空低开,下跌了0.34%。民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯和共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普在民调中几乎旗鼓相当,选举结果可能要在投票结束数天后才能揭晓。

(美元日线价格图,来源:TradingView)
分析师表示,特朗普的移民政策、减税和关税可能会推动通胀、债券收益率和美元上升,而哈里斯则被视为政策延续的候选人。交易商将美元早盘的下跌归因于一项备受关注的民调,显示哈里斯意外在艾奥瓦州领先3个百分点,主要得益于她在女性选民中的受欢迎度。
相反,普遍认为特朗普获胜对美元有利,尽管许多人认为这一结果已被市场消化。特朗普若胜选并控制国会,影响将尤为显著,可能引发美国国债的抛售以及美元的急剧上涨。相比之下,若哈里斯获胜且国会分裂,则可能迅速逆转“特朗普交易”,美元、黄金、比特币和美股可能走低。
选举结果的不确定性是市场预计美联储周四会选择标准的25个基点降息,而不是再次大幅降息50个基点的原因之一。
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