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1月,美国消费者价格指数(CPI)录得近1.5年来最大涨幅,进一步巩固了美联储对降息的谨慎态度,以应对经济不确定性。据美国劳工统计局(BLS)数据,CPI当月上涨0.5%,为2023年8月以来最大增幅,前值上涨0.4%。

(美国CPI环比走势图,来源:Forex Factory)

(美国CPI同比走势图,来源:Forex Factory)
住房成本(包括酒店和汽车旅馆)上涨0.4%,占CPI涨幅的近30%。食品价格上涨0.4%,其中杂货价格飙升0.5%,鸡蛋价格更是暴涨15.2%,创2015年6月以来最大涨幅。部分通胀上升被归因于企业年初提价,例如处方药价格创纪录上涨,以及汽车保险费增加。
与此同时,特朗普政府的经济政策面临持续高通胀的挑战。尽管特朗普曾承诺降低物价,但高通胀可能影响其税改和大规模移民驱逐计划,这可能导致劳动力短缺并推高工资。此外,他提议的关税政策,包括将钢铁和铝关税提高至25%,可能在抑制经济增长的同时推高通胀,使美联储的决策更加复杂。
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